Two very different restaurant markets
In its pandemic-era report, Boston City Properties described a sharp divide between struggling dine-in restaurants and growing fast-casual or quick-service chains. Restrictions on indoor dining and reluctance to gather indoors reduced business for many traditional restaurants, while pickup and digital ordering supported some other operators.
The report contrasted closures at chains such as Ruby Tuesday with demand at Panera and Shake Shack. It attributed an estimate of roughly 110,000 temporary or permanent bar and restaurant closures to the National Restaurant Association; that figure describes the period covered, not today’s restaurant market.
Vacated space and smaller footprints
Established restaurants were giving up locations in major cities, creating opportunities for some expanding operators. The account described interest in spaces of roughly 1,200 to 2,000 square feet suited to grab-and-go service.
Financial backing mattered. A fast-casual brand owned by a larger company could have resources to adopt ordering technology or take over a location that an independent restaurant could not match. The report did not suggest that every small operator benefited equally.
Digital orders and lease negotiations
The article reported that Shake Shack’s digital orders rose from about 20% before the pandemic to nearly 60% for 2020, with a peak near 80% in May 2020. It also described about 1.8 million new digital customers and plans for 50 more locations. Those are historical company figures and plans.
A New York example involved Brooklyn Dumpling Co. securing a lease described as about $100,000 per year for space that previously could have commanded more than $300,000. That example was not a Boston asking rent or a promise that comparable terms were available elsewhere.
What a restaurant site still needs
The account described operators negotiating for unused restaurant space, sometimes offering to buy equipment and fixtures while pursuing a new lease. A useful site comparison looks at pickup access, customer circulation, kitchen equipment, permitted use and the actual lease terms—not floor area alone.
The article expected the opportunity to narrow as dining and restaurant employment recovered. Its forecasts belong to the pandemic period; they should not be used as a current vacancy list, reopening timetable or projection of restaurant profits.
Historical account: Original Boston City Properties report